Weekly market brief

Weekly market brief

Product cycle Jul 31, 2026Certified Weekly Market Brief
This week, in one paragraph

Markets were uneven through July 31. Equities and foreign exchange were Stable; rates and government bonds, along with commodities, were Fragile; and crypto was Stressed. Commodities posted the strongest short-term gain among the included asset families at 1.1%, while crypto had the weakest short-term change at -4.1% and the deepest current full-history drawdown among the included public proxies. The aggregate included cross-asset state was Fragile.

Global Risk Barometer
Cross-asset state: Fragile3 fragile or stressed · 2 constructive or stable
EquitiesStable
Rates and government bondsFragile
CommoditiesFragile
Foreign exchangeStable
CryptoStressed
Cross-Asset Scoreboard

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Asset familyShort-term change
5 observations		Broader trend
63 observations		State
Equities0.7%2.4%Stable
Rates and government bonds-0.7%-0.6%Fragile
Commodities1.1%-5.2%Fragile
Foreign exchange-1.4%1.2%Stable
Crypto-4.1%-11.4%Stressed
Figure 1 · Cross-Asset Growth of $100
$80$90$100$110$120Mar 31, 2026Apr 30, 2026Jun 2, 2026Jul 1, 2026Jul 31, 2026
EquitiesRates and government bondsCommoditiesForeign exchangeCrypto
All included series are normalized to 100 on 2026-03-31 and shown through July 31, 2026.
Figure 2 · Cross-Asset Drawdowns
-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%Mar 31, 2026Apr 30, 2026Jun 2, 2026Jul 1, 2026Jul 31, 2026
EquitiesRates and government bondsCommoditiesForeign exchangeCrypto
Drawdowns in this chart are measured within the shared displayed period beginning 2026-03-31.
What Changed
  • Commodities had the strongest short-term gain among the included asset families, rising 1.1% over the trailing five eligible observations.
  • Crypto had the weakest short-term change, falling 4.1% over the same comparison period and remaining Stressed.
  • Rates and government bonds remained Fragile, while equities and foreign exchange were Stable.
  • The aggregate included cross-asset state remained Fragile through July 31.
What Matters Now
  1. Stability remained concentrated in equities and foreign exchange rather than spreading across the included asset families.
  2. Crypto remained the clearest source of stress, combining the weakest short-term return with the deepest current full-history drawdown among the included public proxies.
  3. Commodities improved over the short comparison period, but the broader trend remained Fragile.
Regime Read

The Fragile reading reflects an uneven market configuration rather than uniform deterioration: two families remained Stable, but weakness across rates, commodities, and crypto prevented a broader constructive state.

The Bridge

HGD also published its decision for this cycle in HGD Record 002.

Read this week's HGD Record →