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Guidance history, every release

Moderna (MRNA) · 8 releases, Nov 7, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026 · rows are metrics, columns are releases

Raised · a change from the previous releaseSame · restated unchanged— · not stated in that releaseEvery value links to its sentence in the filing

Metric	Nov 7, 2024 FY24 Q3	Jan 13, 2025 FY24 Q4	May 1, 2025 FY25 Q1	Aug 1, 2025 FY25 Q2	Nov 6, 2025 FY25 Q3	Jan 12, 2026 FY25 Q4	May 1, 2026 FY26 Q1	Jul 31, 2026 FY26 Q2
For FY2028
Cash breakeven	—	—	—	—	—	New“targeted cash breakeven”	—	—
Cost reduction / breakeven target	—	New“breakeven in 2028”	—	—	—	—	—	—
For FY2027
GAAP operating cost estimate	—	—	New“$4.7 to $5.0 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
GAAP operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	New“$4.2 – $4.6 billion”	—	—
Reduction in estimated GAAP operating costs	—	—	New“$1.4 to $1.7 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
For FY2026
Revenue geographic split	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately 50% U.S. and approximately 50% international”	—
Revenue growth	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue”	Reiterated“up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue”
Revenue growth target	—	—	—	—	—	New“up to 10%”	—	—
Revenue split	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately 50% U.S. and approximately 50% international”
Revenue split - international	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately 50%”
Revenue split - International	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately 50%”	—
Revenue split - U.S.	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately 50%”	—
Second half 2026 revenue recognized	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately 55%”
Share of second half 2026 revenue recognized in the third quarter	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately 55%”
Additional 2026 cost reductions	—	New“$0.5 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—
Additional cash cost savings	—	New“$0.5 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—
Capital expenditures	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“$0.2 to $0.3 billion”	Reiterated“$0.2 to $0.3 billion”
Cost of sales	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately $1.8 billion, including the $0.9 billion non-recurring litigation settlement charge”	Lowered“approximately $1.7 billion”
Estimated GAAP operating costs	—	—	New“$5.4 to $5.7 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
GAAP operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately $4.9 billion”	—	—
Income Taxes	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“full-year tax expense to be negligible”	Revised“negligible”
Litigation settlement payment	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“$950 million”	—
Research and development expenses	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately $3.0 billion”	Lowered“approximately $2.9 billion”
Selling, general and administrative expenses	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately $1.0 billion”	Reiterated“approximately $1.0 billion”
Tax expense	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“negligible”	Reiterated“negligible”
Year-end cash and investments	—	—	—	—	—	—	New“$4.5 to $5.0 billion”	Raised“$4.7 to $5.2 billion”
For FY2025
Expected revenue	—	—	New“$1.5 to $2.5 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
Expected revenue range	—	New“$1.5 to 2.5 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—
First half 2025 revenue	—	—	New“approximately $0.2 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
Projected revenue range	—	—	—	New“$1.5 to $2.2 billion”	Narrowed“$1.6 to $2.0 billion”	—	—	—
Revenue	—	New“$1.5 to 2.5 billion”	Reiterated“$1.5 to $2.5 billion”	—	Narrowed“$1.6 to $2.0 billion”	—	—	—
Revenue	—	—	—	New“$1.5 to $2.2 billion”	—	—	—	—
Revenue	—	—	New“approximately $0.2 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
Revenue split	—	—	—	New“40-50% in the third quarter with the balance in the fourth quarter of 2025”	—	—	—	—
Revenue split	—	—	—	New“40-50%”	—	—	—	—
Second half 2025 revenue split	—	—	—	New“40-50% in the third quarter with the balance in the fourth quarter”	—	—	—	—
Capital expenditures	—	—	—	New“approximately $0.3 billion”	Reiterated“approximately $0.3 billion”	—	—	—
Capital expenditures	—	—	New“approximately $0.4 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
Cash cost expenses reduction	—	New“$1.0 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cost of sales	—	—	—	New“approximately $1.2 billion”	Lowered“approximately $0.8 to $0.9 billion”	—	—	—
Cost of sales	—	—	New“approximately $1.2 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
Expected ending cash balance	—	New“approximately $6.0 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—
Expected GAAP operating expenses	—	—	—	New“$5.9 to $6.1 billion”	Lowered“$5.2 - $5.4 billion”	—	—	—
Expected year-end cash balance	—	—	—	New“approximately $6 billion”	—	—	—	—
Full-year tax expense	—	—	New“negligible”	—	—	—	—	—
GAAP operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	New“$5.0 – $5.2 billion (unaudited)”	—	—
Income Taxes	—	—	New“negligible”	Reiterated“negligible”	Reiterated“negligible”	—	—	—
Potential product approvals	—	New“up to three potential 2025 approvals”	—	—	—	—	—	—
Projected year-end cash balance	—	—	—	—	—	New“approximately $8.1 billion (unaudited)”	—	—
Research and development expenses	—	—	—	—	New“$3.3 to $3.4 billion”	—	—	—
Research and development expenses	—	—	New“approximately $4.1 billion”	Lowered“$3.6 to $3.8 billion”	—	—	—	—
Selling, general and administrative expenses	—	—	—	New“approximately $1.1 billion”	Reiterated“approximately $1.1 billion”	—	—	—
Selling, general and administrative expenses	—	—	New“approximately $1.1 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
Tax expense	—	—	—	New“negligible”	Reiterated“negligible”	—	—	—
Total headcount	—	—	—	New“under 5,000”	—	—	—	—
Year-end cash and investments	—	—	—	New“approximately $6 billion”	Raised“$6.5 to $7 billion”	—	—	—
Year-end cash and investments for 2025	—	—	New“approximately $6 billion”	—	—	—	—	—
For FY2024
Net Sales	New“$3.0 to $3.5 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Capital expenditures	New“approximately $1.2 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cost of Sales	New“40-45%”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Income Taxes	New“negligible”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net product sales from its respiratory franchise	New“$3.0 to $3.5 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Research and development expenses	New“$4.6 to $4.7 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Selling, general and administrative expenses	New“approximately $1.2 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tax expense	New“negligible”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Year-end cash and investments	New“approximately $9 billion”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
No period stated
Cost of sales	New“40-45% of product sales”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Prioritized programs with anticipated milestones	—	New“10”	—	—	—	—	—	—
Product Approvals	New“10”	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Product approvals target	—	New“up to 10 product approvals over the next three years”	—	—	—	—	—	—
Products advancing toward approval	—	—	New“up to 10”	—	—	—	—	—
Registrational data readouts	—	New“six”	—	—	—	—	—	—

Values in quotation marks are the company’s words. Change labels compare each statement with the same metric and target year in the previous release. HighGravityData does not judge whether guidance was met.